- March 31, 2022
- Posted by: Bogdan
- Category: bitcoin, BTC, btcusd, BTCUSDT, Crypto, xbt
There are only hours remaining until the Q1 2022 close in Bitcoin price action. With the important quarterly candle set to close tonight, let’s look at what technicals might say about the direction of the next quarter.
Q1 2022 Comes To A Close For Bitcoin
The first quarter of a year, often sets the tone for the year to come. In investments, a poor Q1 performance is indicative of a bad year ahead. Considering the fact that Bitcoin price is now above $45,000 after touching $32,000 this quarter, it is tough to say the performance has been “poor” by anything other than crypto standards.
Related Reading | Bitcoin Weekly Momentum Flips Bullish For First Time In 2022
The cryptocurrency has recovered nearly 40% from the low, leaving a long wick behind. Such a long wick suggests that before the quarter came to a close, buyers stepped up in a major way. Buyers were able to step up in a larger capacity in Q1 2022 than bears were able to in the final quarter of last year. The bearish wick to close 2021 only just made it over 30% by comparison.
The quarterly RSI bounced off the moving average | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
By those standards, bulls might still have the upper hand. It also helps that unlike past bear markets, the quarterly Relative Strength Index was able to hold above the RSI-based moving average.
A full year Bitcoin has held above these lines | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Additional comparison with past bear markets using the Ichimoku show that after each major cycle peak, both the conversion line and base line were immediately lost during the next opening quarterly candle. Bitcoin price holding above these important indicator lines for a full year should confirm it has strong support.
It also spent a year above the middle-band above | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Donchian channels, which act as an envelope around price action, also demonstrate similar bullish behavior compared to previous cycles. Even the 2019 stopped precisely at the middle band. The past several quarters were able to hold above the key level.
Price action is above the Super Guppy bands | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The quarterly Super Guppy suggests that Bitcoin price wicked into the several layers of support, and was able to hold above the highest most line. The retest-type situation could lead to a push higher.
Has Bitcoin bottomed? CMF might suggest it has | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Holders hoping for a bottom might have already witnessed the worst. The quarterly Chaikin Money Flow reached a low at nearly the same extreme as the 2018 bear market bottom. Bitcoin price plunged 50% after already falling from $20,000 to $6,000 causing widespread capitulation across the crypto market.
Related Reading | This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead
Similar capitulation might have been achieved across two large peaks and more than 50% corrections each, at a slower grind than past corrective phases. Considering this, along with several other bullish quarterly signals, the rest of the year still has a strong chance of being green.
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Featured image from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com